Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.263656 0.320680 0.390319 0.482719 0.603762 0.759300 0.978215
2025-04-27 0.163034 0.215367 0.286426 0.392614 0.552072 0.790966 1.193271
2025-05-04 0.112989 0.159459 0.228268 0.342059 0.535068 0.869163 1.543089
2025-05-11 0.080998 0.120637 0.183707 0.297488 0.512709 0.939458 1.971502
2025-05-18 0.058772 0.091381 0.146379 0.253074 0.474855 0.972178 2.405327
2025-05-25 0.043897 0.070762 0.118370 0.216769 0.439409 0.999696 2.923216
2025-06-01 0.035399 0.059229 0.103701 0.202064 0.446475 1.149043 4.144224
2025-06-08 0.029244 0.050622 0.092471 0.191154 0.459851 1.344854 6.143367
2025-06-15 0.024840 0.044414 0.084535 0.185317 0.486517 1.634052 9.883551
2025-06-22 0.021379 0.039371 0.077851 0.180452 0.516230 2.001543 16.729511
2025-06-29 0.018111 0.034117 0.069496 0.168377 0.516758 2.267059 25.826894
2025-07-06 0.014391 0.027326 0.056247 0.138441 0.435851 2.002579 25.838567
2025-07-13 0.012552 0.024398 0.051811 0.133748 0.455517 2.426188 48.361451
2025-07-20 0.011289 0.022520 0.049528 0.135027 0.504703 3.236357 123.046836
2025-07-27 0.010322 0.021143 0.048216 0.139266 0.576482 4.599934 458.959780
2025-08-03 0.009342 0.019565 0.046016 0.139753 0.634210 6.256217 2253.894890
2025-08-10 0.008314 0.017703 0.042619 0.134516 0.656462 7.745687 13737.544295
2025-08-17 0.007385 0.015942 0.039134 0.127620 0.663461 9.231902 189736.455629
2025-08-24 0.006790 0.014933 0.037642 0.128424 0.730342 13.054462 NaN
2025-08-31 0.006271 0.014037 0.036298 0.129418 0.805661 18.946416 NaN
2025-09-07 0.005848 0.013327 0.035377 0.132085 0.906761 29.534272 NaN
2025-09-14 0.005461 0.012653 0.034422 0.134292 1.015194 47.210009 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005005 0.011725 0.032422 0.130288 1.053019 64.228197 NaN